Vietnam Industrial Production Forecast

Vietnam’s industrial production jumped by 18.3% year-on-year in January 2024, sharply accelerating from a 5.8% rise in the previous month. It was the ninth consecutive month of expansion in industrial output and the steepest pace since April 2021, with production picking up strongly for both manufacturing (19.3% vs 7.6% in December), and electricity and gas supply (21.6% vs 5.9%). Also, activities rebounded for mining & quarrying (7.3% vs -12.8%) and water supply and waste management (5.7% vs 11.5%). In 2023, industrial production grew by 1.5%. source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam

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Vietnam Output Record Upate

Vietnam’s GDP grew by 6.72% in the fourth quarter of 2023, continuing a trend of increasing GDP growth rates, starting with the first quarter of 2023 at 3.28%, 4.05% (later revised to 4.14% ) for the following quarter, and 5.33% for the third quarter.

As such, Vietnam finished the year with a combined 5.05% growth for the entire 2023 . The fourth quarter of 2023 exceeded the previous fourth quarters from the last three years, with 5.92% in 2022, 5.22% in 2021, and 2.91% in 2020. Only back in pre-pandemic 2019 was the fourth quarter GDP growth higher than this year’s. Despite showing continued signs of recovery from the pandemic, the growth rate for all of 2023 is down from 8% in 2022 and the performance falls short of Vietnam’s growth target of 6.5% for 2023.

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Vietnam GDP Growth Rate

Vietnam is a developing economy in the Southeast Asia. In recent years, the nation has been rising as a leading agricultural exporter and an attractive foreign investment destination. Vietnam’s key products are: rice, cashew nuts, black pepper, coffee, tea, fishery products and rubber. Manufacturing, information technology and high-tech industries constitute a fast growing part of the economy. Vietnam is also one of the largest oil producers in the region.

Vietnam’s GDP grew by 6.72% yoy in Q4 of 2023, quickening from an upwardly revised 5.47% rise in Q3 and pointing to the 9th straight period of expansion, flash estimates showed. The latest figure was also the fastest economic output since Q3 of 2022, buoyed by a 7.29% growth in the service sector, which accounts for about 49.1% of the GDP. Additionally, construction and agriculture rose 7.35%, and 4.13%, each. Meantime, the Vietnamese central bank has trimmed its policy rates 4 times this year to spur credit demand, slashing its refinance and discount rates by a total of 150bps, each. For the full 2023, the economy expanded 5.05%, missing the government target of 6.5% for the year and falling below average growth of 5.87% in the prior decade, rattled by global headwinds, a stagnation in public investment, and an anti-graft crackdown by the government. For 2024, Hanoi targets the economy to grow between 6 to 6.5%, supported by exports as well as tourism and related services. source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam